Are you ready for a year of this? The lawsuit filed by the El Paso Apartment Association against the city of El Paso and Ed Archuleta, the CEO of the Public Service Board, can be viewed cynically as part of a growing perfect political storm.

The attorney for the apartment owners is James Martinez. Remember him? The former chief administrative officer of the city who graciously left without a protracted struggle following Mayor John Cook's unexpected win over previous Mayor Joe Wardy, in what turned out to be a sweep that brought city reps Susie Byrd, Steve Ortega, Beto O'Rourke, and Ann Lilly into office with Cook. Those four, and the mayor, have formed a solid majority on a number of hot-button issues, from the Downtown Plan to the regional transportation issues to planning and development to the stormwater district to Asarco. And that doesn't even mention this year's summer budget, which always is contested, and even more so in election cycles.

And we are in an election cycle for City Council. In 2009, Cook, Byrd and Ortega are up, as is rep. Melina Castro, who has been part of the three-member minority. Also, the District 3 seat (the crux of this little analysis) is up. There could be a seismic shift in the direction of the city, or an affirmation of it, over the next year. Will power and taxes be the dominant theme, or progress and positive change? It might be easier to frame a negative attack than an affirmative, the sad lesson Democrats are learning at a national level.

Regarding the mention of Martinez -- this is not to say Martinez is anything but a professional lawyer. Just to point out some history. Also along those lines, the media for the apartment owners is Teresa Montoya, who has helped Asarco with its media during the protracted battle with the city. The current council majority has angered car dealers and apartment owners with the stormwater fee issue, developers with the planning issues, a cross-section of activists, business people and some property owners with the Downtown Plan. Other issues directly related to and/or peripheral to the council are electoral and transportation battles, the Children's Hospital election, and the public corruption investigation, each of which has created enemies.

So battle lines are hardening. Poor El Paso, so close to the United States …

Meanwhile, as mentioned previously, the District 3 seat is up in 2009. Before that regular election, however, there is a special election in about two weeks (May 10) to fill the unexpired term of Alexandro Lozano, who resigned to run unsuccessfully for County Commissioners Court. We can consider this a little tune-up, or, going with the weather analogy, this is the leading edge of the storm.

Running for the District 3 seat, in what is, as mentioned, essentially full-scale City Council election cycle, are five people, in alphabetical order: Emma Acosta, John Burch, Naomi Gonzalez, Fabiola Ruiz-Arras, and Joseph Villescas. (The names above are hotlinked to their NPT questionnaires, and the names below are hotlinked to their Web sites, if they have one.)

-- Acosta: She has a history with the city, as sanitation director who left with a confidentiality agreement that nets her $90,000 a year. Fairly or unfairly, that agreement left a sour taste in the mouths of many. [npt march 2, 2005, document review] [npt march 15, 2005, document review]

However, she also has been around the political scene for some time -- in fact, she ran for District 7 in 2005 -- and the fact her treasurer is listed as Queta Fierro, a long-time LULAC stalwart and a former county chair of the Democratic Party and a member of the Moreno Machine, means that she is tied in with some savvy operators and has to be considered a front-runner. Acosta showed a $2,500 loan to herself, and $2,329.70 in expenses, with the largest being $1,100 to Idea Spreaders for door hangers. [acosta finance report]

-- Burch: Not much is known about Burch, who moved to El Paso in 2004. A real long-shot, who seems to be in it for the right reasons but needs more seasoning and name-recognition for a shot at office. He didn't file a campaign finance report as of Monday.

-- Gonzalez: One of several assistant county attorneys who ran for public office this season. [march 28, 2008 npt background]

She has to be considered a front-runner because of the support from the business community as well as support from city Rep. Susie Byrd, or at least from her supporters. Gonzalez's opponents are trying to hang the PDNG around her neck; Gonzalez has reported by far the most money in the race ($15,288.91) and reported contributions from such recognizable names as Sanders, Hunt, and Foster, as well as a sizeable contribution from the Citizens for Prosperity PAC. However, she has shown a willingness to be independent of those donors, as shown by answers on the NPT questionnaire regarding such hot-button issues as Western Refining and eminent domain. She has reported a $2,900 expenditure for the ad services of Morris Pittle, and $1,500 to the Reuel Group. [onzalez campaign report]

-- Ruiz-Arras: The mystery candidate, running in the mold of a Rachel Quintana or Melina Castro, two city reps who ran on a low budget, avoided most public appearances and relied on mailers in a formula perfected by kingmaker Luther Jones, who has been keeping a very low profile in these times. Does this mean she has any specific support or alignment? Only time will tell. Judging by her answers on the NPT questionnaire, she would fall in the anti-majority faction on City Council. And recent history has proven you cannot count out young, hard-working and tight-lipped.

-- Villescas: Another strong wildcard who many assumed would fall in the same camp as Gonzalez, but who has voiced sharp attacks on Gonzalez. His campaign manager is Jimmy Suerken, who had the support of the mayor and much of the political establishment but was defeated by Quintana in an East Side runoff. Suerken is seeking to establish his independence after that bitter defeat, after which he was abandoned somewhat by those who supported his run. He and Villescas present an interesting twist on the progressive city movement; harsh critics of the way El Paso's business and political leadership do business, while supporting many of the broad progressive ideas such as mass transit, an emphasis on the central city, and strong protections of the community environment for both health and aesthetic reasons. Villescas worked with Byrd and Pittle on the El Paso Ex-Pat project. [dec. 14, 2007 npt background]

One of these five will have a few months to settle in, then start running again. They can have a temporary impact on major issues, including the budget this summer, and they might set the stage for the larger battles to come about this time next year.

The question is, will El Paso vote for a different direction, and what will it be? What do you think El Paso is, and what do you want El Paso to be?

Are you ready for a year of this?