If you believe all the media hype this week you're surely counting Senator Hillary Clinton out as the Democratic nominee by now. Congratulations should go to Senator Barack Obama then ... right? The Democrats elected the right person ... right? Probably not.
If the Democrats were looking to advance the person most likely to succeed in the general election; I think they have made a mistake. Knowing what we now know about which states trend red (Republican) or blue (Democrat) it should have been a no-brainer to the Democratic Super Delegates to pick Clinton overwhelmingly. Don't believe me? Here's the breakdown.
The very first thing you should do is familiarize yourself with the 2004 Presidential Election results and the corresponding map. CNN has provided this information in a very easy to read format and you can find it HERE.
Notice which states went to President Bush and which states went to John Kerry. A little over three million votes and 34 electoral votes separated the candidates. I would venture the opinion that this election could be as close as the last one with one or two states making all the difference in the outcome.
The argument between Obama and Clinton supporters is one of quantity versus quality. Barack has won more states and more delegates, but Hillary has won bigger states and, depending on the count, owns the popular vote. What is more important?
In order for the Democrats to improve upon John Kerry's performance in 2004 they are going to have pick up a medium or large state. Two states that are most often described as "swing states" are Ohio and Florida. Election handicappers point out that both states are split right down the middle when it comes to Democrats and Republicans. Bush pulled out razor thin wins in 2004. If a democrat was to pick up just one of those states in the upcoming election with all other states staying their same color (red or blue) they'd win the presidency. So who has the best shot to win those states?
Clinton won both states' primaries even though neither candidate was to campaign in Florida. To see an easy to read map on which states Obama and Clinton won you can click HERE. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Democrats have picked the candidate who lost in both of these states to a candidate in his own party. Technically speaking the Democrats aren't putting their most popular candidate on the ballot in either of these swing states. I find that somewhat hard to explain away.
In fact, if you look at the five largest states minus each Senator's homes state (Illinois tied for number 5 and New York number 3) you'll see that Clinton takes three out of five with Barack not clearly winning one state, but instead splitting two with Clinton.
Top Five States by Number Electoral Votes and Democratic Primary Winner (minus Illinois and New York)
California - Clinton
Texas - split
Florida - split
Pennsylvania - Clinton
Ohio - Clinton
(Electoral College Information HERE)
I hate to diminish the role of other smaller states in this race, but the Democrats have reliably won most of the large electoral vote rich states in the past. In my opinion it's a bad strategy to pin all your hopes on a candidate who obtained most of his delegates by winning states that are likely to go Republican in the general election.
I must also admit that anything is possible and Obama may just win Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia making all of my arguments moot. Somehow, I doubt that is going to happen.
If you've done a little homework you're probably screaming by now. After all, Barack Obama has been shown to be leading McCain by more percentage points than Hillary Clinton is in most national head to head polls. If Obama does better than Clinton in national polls against McCain then Obama should be nominee, right? Well, you're right, but you are wrong.
(Note: right now Obama supporters are feverishly searching the internet for proof that polls are more often than not correct and reflect what will actually happen in the upcoming election)
National polls that measure the will of just over 1,500 or so likely voters isn't the best way to examine the likely result of the upcoming election. Remember, our president is chosen by the electoral college and not the popular vote. The best way to handicap the upcoming race is measure the polling results from each respective state. Good thing I have that information handy for you.
The links below will show you how both Obama and Clinton are polling against McCain in a state by state breakdown with a history of polling results.
Looks like both candidates at this moment are projected to beat McCain, but one Democrat looks quite a bit stronger than the other. Their math has Clinton scoring 327 electoral votes against McCain and Obama racking up only 276 electoral votes. The threshold for victory is 270 electoral votes.
Notice that Clinton beats McCain in both Florida and Ohio where as Obama only defeats McCain in Ohio. Presidential insurance of the best kind comes in a package that includes Florida and Ohio victories. Clinton leads McCain by ten percentage points in Florida while McCain leads Obama by the same margin in that state. Both candidates are leading McCain in Ohio.
As you compare the two maps you may notice that Clinton is actually beating McCain in North Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia and Kentucky. Do you remember that blood red map from above? Refresh your memory - Blood Red Map From Above. Taking any one of those states would be devastating for the Republicans. Obama isn't beating McCain in any of those states. In fact, Obama's map looks a little like the one from 2004 where the Democrats lost.
(Note: right now Obama supporters are feverishly searching the internet for proof that polls are actually always wrong and do not reflect what will actually happen in the upcoming election)
All of this polling data leaves me wondering under what parameters are the Democrats picking the candidate. Are they picking the candidate whose politics they like the most or the one with the best chance to win?
On one hand a purist would not leave his or her political ideals just to say that someone with the Democratic label is in power. On the other hand a person loyal to the party brand would set aside any policy disputes to support someone wearing the home team's jersey. The Republicans obviously picked the latter over the former.
I'm sure that Barack Obama is an amazing inspirer of people, but the numbers just don't reflect that he's the most popular. The fact is that Hillary Clinton has collected more votes than her opponent, depending on the count. Somehow those votes just weren't cast in the right places to advance their respective candidacies.
Delegates and Electoral Colleges seem to complicate what should be straight forward. In this case the delegate process created by the Democratic Party leaders have delivered them the weaker candidate... at least on paper.
Will there be a lesson for the Democrats to learn in this election? I would forward the guess that there is a very big lesson for them to learn. Winning the most delegates in your party's contest doesn't always make you the best candidate to go out and beat the other party's best.
They may find that a successful run for president is dictated by the right combination of strategy and popularity.
There's a variation of a quote attributed to President Abraham Lincon that says, "You can please all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot please all the people all the time." My advice to Senator Barack Obama is to please the people in the swing states before the first Tuesday in November because he's going to need them.
















Nancy
June 4, 2008
Your article focuses solely on matters pertaining to whether Obama or Clinton would be most likely to win against McCain, and as a Democrat, I do agree that this is an important issue. Personally, I am confident Obama will win, even if it is true that she would have won by a bigger margin.
However, there's another equally important question to ask--what kind of President do we want in the White House? Speaking as someone (middle aged and female, I might add) who voted enthusiastically for Obama, I would rather that he be in the White House even if he IS less popular than Clinton, since I think he is by far the better and more honest person. Given that their policies and voting records are so similar, given that they are both smart and well educated, let's have the person who is fresh and inspirational and true to his word. I was immensely impressed by the grace with which he campaigned, his honesty in dealing with Rev. Wright, his diplomacy. I have been turned off by Clinton's self absorption, misleading statements and graceless refusal to concede the nomination.
So please, don't oversimplify the issue at stake. We need a GOOD person in the White House and frankly, I'm not convinced that Clinton is in any way a better person than McCain or Bush--all 3 of them are party politicians who trade in secrets and lies. Enough of that.
Richard
June 4, 2008
It's time now for those Democrats who supported Clinton to to stop espousing why she was such a superior candidate. First they underestimated Obama's ability to defeat hern in the primaries and now they seem determined to be proven right that only she could have beaten McCain. Either come to Obama's support or slap a McCain sticker on your bumper and stop calling yourself a Democrat. Hillary lost fair and square -- get over it.
TLee
June 4, 2008
Would she make a good President? Try reading Carl Bernstein’s book, A Woman In Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton. You’ll find the following insights to help you determine whether she would nor not.
...her least appealing traits, a) her demand for absolute loyalty b) her first-strike mentality, and c) her "truth trimming".... an unauthentic personality, a refusal to take responsibility for failure, and utter contempt for Washington wise men like Bob Strauss. ...she appears to be running her life based on old habits and a desire to win...
...certain political figures, notably former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley and the late Senator Daniel P. Moynihan of New York (both of whom expressed concerns about Clinton's self-righteousness and possible arrogance) are also of interest to those wondering how Senator Clinton might perform if elected president....
Her senate career is, at best, mediocre in that she has not lead on any issue of national importance except flag burning. She has a history of destroying political opponents and anyone else who may appear threatening. Al Gore went to congress to elevate the importance of the climate crises, and on this issue, she had little to say and was downright rude... she allows her personal ambitions to supercede realistic and practical action.... then there were the legal issues in the cattle futures deal and the billing records not being turned over... pardon scandals in the last days of the Clinton presidency, including the with the Puerto Rican terrorists or those arranged for her brother...
...Bernstein's basic message is that Hillary, despite all of her many flaws and failures, has tried to do good things, however, the glaring omission in Bernstein's book is abundant evidence that the Clintons turned their party into an instrument that advanced the interests of the corporation (and themselves) just as surely as the Republicans ever did.... The Clintons "rolled over" for just about anything that the corporate world wanted during those "glorious" economic days of the 1990s, but a couple of months after Clinton left office, the Nasdaq fell from 5,000 to below 2,000, and millions of people lost their life savings, pensions disappeared during the nineties, prisons were privatized, the trade deficit ballooned, millions of manufacturing jobs disappeared and more immigrants were held in detention centers than ever before. Where was Hillary through all of this? Apparently, these were not her issues.
...her actual personal accomplishments, at least as laid out in this book... there isn't much there to claim she was in charge. Most of her life was dependent on Bill. And while she does deserve real credit for getting elected to the Senate and for her accomplishments there (slight as they are) would she have won that job without Bill's popularity?
...reforming health care.... handled by Hillary with secrecy, refusal to compromise, and antagonizing key Senators such as Bradley, Byrd, and Moynihan by her remarks and attitude.... Other issues/mistakes included the White House Travel Office firings, shuffling Secret Service protection staff, block press corp access to the West Wing, remaining aloof form local society and charity involvement, removing Whitewater material from Vince Foster's papers after his suicide and the related conflict of interest through personal Rose law firm involvement with Whitewater, and Hillary's refusal to release Whitewater documents or settle the Paula Jones lawsuit early on...
And finally, the book gives us hope that if she were indeed nominated President, then maybe she could return the countless historical items and items of value that she and Bill absconded with before leaving the White House.”
Ken G
June 4, 2008
David K's analysis is quite probably accurate but the only poll that counts will be in November. Hillary is probably hoping for a major Obama stumble before the convention and a large shift in super-delegates. It probably won't happen. The Repubs are keeping their powder dry until the Dems silect their candidate. An Obama-Clinton ticket would make an inviting target. There will be great interest in VP selection but it will have little impact in November.
jacksmith
June 4, 2008
Hillary Clinton is STUNNING!!!
You have just witnessed the greatest political campaign fight in American history. One for the textbooks, and the history books. Hillary Clinton fought her heart out against all odds to win for all of the American people . While at the same time doing her best to prepare Sen. Barack Obama to win in November if he was the nominee. STUNNING!!! WELL DONE HILLARY CLINTON. WELL DONE! Your AMAZING! :-)
Sen. Obama could not have had a better opponent than Hillary Clinton. Nor could he have had a better opponent to prepare him for the battle royal to come against John McCain and the Republicans ahead of the November elections. Hillary Clinton was like a big Mama cat determined to teach her kitten how to hunt, and hang with the big dogs for the fights ahead.
And how about Bill Clinton, Chelsea, and th whole Clinton team. They were magnificent. They really showed their metal. BRAVO! TEAM CLINTON... BRAVO!
And how about YOU! my fellow Americans. I'm so proud of you. And proud to be one of you. You showed what you are made of. And what makes America so great. You never gave up on your Champion Hillary Clinton. Time, and time again you eagerly waited your turn to vote for Hillary Clinton. To pick her up and pass her along down the line to the rest of your fellow Americans.
You never gave up on her. Just as Hillary Clinton never gave up on you. No matter how many times they counted her out. No matter how many times they brutally knocked her down. You knew she would get back up. And you were ready to support her when she did. AMERICA LOVES A FIGHTER. AMERICA UNDERSTANDS A FIGHTER. AMERICA IS A FIGHTER. I'M PROUD OF YOU AMERICA!
Hillary said she would accept the VP spot on the ticket if ask. And I am thrilled to hear that. I think it would be crazy not to take her up on that offer. You could not have a better VP than Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is Sen. Obama's best chance of winning the Whitehouse in November. And it is essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse.
The American people are in a very desperate condition now. George Bush has wrecked America, and much of the world.
YOU MADE US VERY PROUD HILLARY CLINTON! :-)
WE LOVE YOU...
jacksmith... Working Class :-)
p.s. I really liked Sen. Barack Obama's speech in Minnesota. I think he just maybe ready now for the Bush Republican attack machine, dirty tricks, and vote fraud machine. :-)
LisaT
June 4, 2008
How about an independent run by Clinton.
How about a McCain/Clinton ticket.
Joe Olvera
June 4, 2008
Not only can Obama win the presidency, he will win the presidency. This article points out all the elements of why Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate than Obama. However, it's a totally new ball game. One can't rely on business as usual, not in this presidential race.
This article tries to explain away Obama's chances with mere numbers - fuzzy math. The article doesn't include the drama, the tears, the pride that people feel because, finally, the United States of America has an excellent chance to elect a black man to be the president. Will it happen? Yes, it will. We can argue mathematically all we want, but where's the soul, the heart, the thrill? The writer cites the election of 2004 - an election that featured two white men -George W. Bush and John kerry.
Neither one of these two men is Barack Obama. Barack represents something new, something dynamic, something powerful. So, throw out all your old notions of why this or why that. It's a whole new ball game. None of the old whys and wherefores work anymore. Pundits and so-called experts are going to be forced back to the drawing board. Throw out all the very old strategies, throw out all the hatred, all the racist antagonisms. It's a whole new ball game and Barack Obama has stepped up to the plate. John McCain? He just doesn't have what it takes to combat this new reality. He will lose come November, math or no math.
Sin Fin
David K
June 4, 2008
"America has an excellent chance to elect a black man to be the president."
So skin color and not substance is what we are shooting for here? We had a chance to elect Jessie Jackson, Alan Keyes and Al Sharpton, but they didn't receive the same attention for some reason. One of those guys even won a primary.
The argument is shallow.
If Barack is so dynamic and poweful how come there's a question of whether or not he got the popular vote? Many accounts say that Clinton, the politics as usualy candidate beat him in the popular vote.
adrian
June 4, 2008
i will never vote for obama! this Hillary supporter just crossed over to John McCain. Its a shame that the obama campaign is counting on sheer luck to win in November. NUMBERS DO NOT LIE and there is no way that obama will win in southern and northeastern states! Just remember that everyone thought that George W. Bush would lose in November 2004. I hate to break the news to obama suporters but the Democratic National Committee is really using the obama campaign as a cash cow to fund the senate and house races. One last thing, even if Hillary is selected for the VP slot I still will not vote for obama. Make no mistake this Hillary supporter will devote all energies to make sure obama does not win.
Jerry Lawrence Jr.
June 4, 2008
I don't think Obama can beat Mccain in November without Clinton as his running mate
Jerry K
June 5, 2008
I think Hillary is Dick Cheney in drag: a total control freak and machiavellian to boot. I am glad she is not the Dem candidate (but it isn't over until it's over).
This election is the Dems to lose and, true to form, I think they will lose it again, in spite of all the GOP has done to destroy the country and faith in government.
Sen. McCain has abandoned his independent stance that endeared him to so many traditional Republicans (i.e., me) who were appalled at the Rove/Bush spending spree and suck-up to the religious wingnuts.
So what has McCain proposed to us as his "independent" platform? ANS: 1) the jobs are gone for good; 2) the Mexicans are staying; 3) the war goes on. Duh...I'm glad I'm not his PR flack and have to sell that to America!
admin
June 5, 2008
How about a McCain/Clinton ticket? "The Dream Ticket"
Obama is going to win in november.
pessimist
June 5, 2008
I watched in disbelief in 2000 as half the voters in this nation made their choice for a subliterate presidential candidate, enough to allow his cronies to steal it.
Then I watched with utter astonishment in 2004 as the (m)asses elected this puppet president yet again for a second term. Intelligence and reason are no longer objects of pride or importance in this country.
Now that I don't underestimate the shear blockhead stupidity of the electorate, I expect to see the Republicans triumph yet again, another 4 years of Bushismo, because the Democrats just don't get it. Obama will not win over Reagan Democrats, or the blue collar Democrats, or the majority of Hispanics, nor the purple states, sorry to say because of the race thing. I personally know several lifelong Democrats that will not vote for Obama. No one wants to face the truth of racial bias and bigotry in this country. The Pollyanna Obama Democrats with visions of Progressive Utopia have blinded themselves to this. In the voting booth the emotions and prejudices rule, not the rational mind. When will Democrats learn this truth?!
In fact, there is talk that Hillary Democrats will not vote for Obama either, but will opt to write-in Hillary on the ballot. I believe McCain will win handily. Although I pray to God that I'm wrong and that I won't re-live for a third time that election night nightmare, I don't think I am.
You all better pray too, because you're gonna need some kind of intervention. You'll be crying too the Wednesday after.
David Ramirez
June 5, 2008
Polls are one thing but actual elections are another.
In most the primaries before McCain clinched the nomination, more votes were cast for either Hillary or Obama alone and all the Republican candidates combined. So even if many Hillary supporters jump ship, Obama should de very well in the general election.
It is obvious that Hillary is extremely well qualified to be the President of this great country and I would have supported her if it was not for Obama coming into the picture.
Senator Clinton and her supporters can claim and scream all they want, that Hillary has a better chance that Obama to defeat McCain in the general election – but they are wrong. Remember there was a huge strategic effort among the right-wing ‘fear & hate’mongers of the talk show circuit all across this country to encourage Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in state primaries with the hope that she will win the nomination on the Democratic side. Why? Because they have been framing the attacks on Hillary since the 90’s. They know very well that nothing motivates and mobilizes Conservatives to go vote against the Democrats better than Hillary does. If you don’t believe this just walk up to any staunch republican and just say the word ‘Hillary!!’ and boy they will right away start regurgitating a whole litany of ugly comments. Just like Pavlov’s dog that salivates at the ring of a bell, conservatives are conditioned to react against anything related to Hillary.
Republican strategist know that attacking Obama will not be as easy as Hillary, because they would be on a slippery slope and may be accused of being labeled as racist – Even though every real ‘Racist’ that votes in November will not vote for Obama anyways. However this will not prevent them from attacking Obama and to search every nook and cranny for any dirt about Obama.
Now, it would be a great shame if people who consider themselves to be Progressive or Democrats and strong supporters of Hillary Clinton, decide to vote for the same party that has mastered the art of hating Hillary.
Rich
June 5, 2008
I voted for Hillary and I sent contributions to her campaign. But of course Obama was a close second choice for me as also would have been Richardson, Edwards, Biden or Dodd. People who now say that they will switch their vote from Hillary to McCain have supported Hillary for few if any of the right reasons. They have to be ignorant and not respectful of the things Hillary stands for and fights for. Obama and Hillary are almost identical on their positions on all the issues. McCain and Obama differ significantly on every issue as well as very significant differences on who they would appoint to the Supreme Court.
No informed and dedicated supporter of Hillary could vote for McCain. Period. Only the Hillary supporters who supported her because she was a woman and who did not understand or pay attention to what she stood for could switch their allegiance to McCain.
I feel scorn, shame and disgust for any registered Democrat who felt they had a passion for Hillary's campaign without having aspired to Hillary's principals. A vote for McCain is contrary and repulsive to everything Hillary and every real Democrat holds dear.
pessimist
June 5, 2008
Nevertheless Rich, your scorn notwithstanding. You assume that the majority of Hillary supporters were your "informed and dedicated supporters." That may prove to be a tragic assumption.
And while David Ramirez assumes that it takes a 'Racist' (with a capital R) to deny Obama their vote, I say that it only takes common, garden-variety cultural prejudice to do so. The differences between racism, bigotry and prejudice are not merely a matter of semantic subtleties. There are real differences in definition between those attitudes...if you'd ever taken cultural studies you'd know the difference.
All the more reason to bring Hillary in as the VP running mate. BTW I will be voting for Obama of course.
Tim
June 8, 2008
first, i would like to point out that the only way clinton actualy gets the populair vote, is by not counting 4 caucus states, OR by not giving any votes to obama in michigan.
for a candidate claiming to want to count any vote, claiming to have the populair vote only because you don't count some votes seems kind of strange...
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_presidential_primaries#Popular_vote_table)
besides that, you mention that "They may find that a successful run for president is dictated by the right combination of strategy and popularity." but really, Obama is your man here.
with some of the worst odds to start with(clinton was seen as inevitable by everyone) obama managed to win anyway. he paid atention to the caucuses, which clinton foolishly ignored. he paid atention to how the delegates were split, according to the countys. by using this tactic, he even managed to get 13 out of 25 delegates in Nevada, while losing the populair vote.
if there is anyone who can adapt his strategy to winning the electoral college, its Obama, and not Hillary "lets ignore caucuses" Clinton.
Scott Comar
June 8, 2008
You know what? I voted for Obama in the primary, and I will vote for him in the general election; furthermore, regardless of whether or not I vote at all, OBAMA WILL WIN AND BECOME OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.
Why? Just take a look around at what is actually happening: job opportunities are decreasing, the economy is bad, more people are spending more for less, and overall, the American people are not happy with the corporate robbery that has been occurring over the past decade. It truly is time for a change.
Go ahead. Doubt Obama. Doubt yourself. Yet one must ask themselves the ultimate question: is a vote for the Republican candidate really in one's best interests? We as a nation cannot afford to make the same mistake and allow a conservative Republican to wreak havoc-globally and domestically- for the next four years.
I believe that Obama will: (1) restore US foreign relations and diplomacy to its once more respected stature among global states; (2) create a domestic policy that will support and enhance our infrastructure, including education, healthcare, availability of opportunity, and, moreover, the economy.
We cannot allow ourselves to be fooled by the bought and paid for corporate propaganda that the McCain campaign will bombard us with via the mainstream media. In looking deeper at the whole of it all, McCain's platform is a bunch of crap, and collapses into a seeming Social Darwinism that is out of touch with the average mainstream American, who is trying to make ends meet.
Do the right thing and think positive: Obama will win, and I will vote for him.
Laura Enriquez
June 8, 2008
Of course Democrats who supported Hillary will vote for Obama. But why wouldn't Obama pick Hillary as his running mate? She has shown that she can get votes. They need to do what is best for the party and what will get us in the White House.
Don't assume that McCain will lose. He has done a good job of staying away from Bush. I agree with those that say don't underestimate the American voter that will go and vote for McCain.
Democrats need to unite so that we can win--- it should be a Obama/Hillary ticket in November. Congratulations to both candidates for working so hard and to Obama and his supporters for winning as the Democratic nominnee.