February 1, 2008
Haggerty vs. Margo ... and the winner is Moody!
Let me start by saying that unlike Michael Vick, I have no dog in this fight. I like both Haggerty and Margo. If you think I don't like Margo then you didn't understand the point of my previous article about Margo. I'm going to write about it every chance I get. It's truly the best race in the city in my opinion.
What I write below is not meant to be an endorsement of any candidate nor should it play any part in your decision to vote for any candidate. What I write below is an assessment of a political race using data from previous elections provided by the County Elections Office web page . I could be totally wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time! However, I feel this assessment stands on its own merits.
Simply put, Haggerty is going to be a victim of the loaded Democratic primary. If you look at the upcoming Democratic primary ballot versus the Republican primary ballot you'll see that the Democratic ballot is twice as long as the Republican. The Democratic primary ballot is eight pages long where as the Republican is four and it includes three referendums solely connected to the Texas Republican party's guidance. Basically, if you want to pick the next person to fill most of the spots in town, you're going to have to vote in the Democratic primary.
If you're like me you are conservative, but going to vote in the Democratic primary because you know the best judges and sheriff's candidates are running as Democrats. In some cases there are no republicans running for certain judgeships. If you're a Democrat you're sure as hell going to vote in the Democratic primary because Texas just might be the deciding vote between Sens. Clinton and Obama who are running for the Presidential nomination. The incentive to vote in the Democratic primary, no matter your everyday politics, is strong.
What does that mean in the Haggerty race? It means that if the conventional wisdom is true and "crossover" voters pushed Haggerty past O'Donnell in the 2006 primary, they won't be there this time. If you're confused as to what a "crossover" voter is, don't worry, it has nothing do with men dressing up as women on election day. The term refers to persons of one party voting in the other party's primary.
To get an idea of whether the the "crossover" effect for Haggerty was true I did take a peek at the results of the 2004 and 2006 primaries where Haggerty had an opponent both times. The turnout did increase by a little over 2 percent in 2006 even though 2004 was a presidential election year. Without pulling an entire voter file I can deduce that some folks did cross over to vote for Haggerty in 2006. Was the number substantial? Not entirely, but it made the difference.
This time around Haggerty will have zero of the crossover votes, for the reasons mentioned above, and he'll have even less of the middle-of-the-road Republicans that he's so popular with. Both groups will be going to the donkey dance to choose a partner on March 4. Dee Margo enjoys the support of the current party leadership in town. He also enjoys an advantage with the die-hard Republicans who are disillusioned with Haggerty's good relationship with Democrats and moderates. Are the voters going to save Haggerty or are they going to cast their vote in the other primary where 10 judges, one district attorney and a sheriff will be picked? Don't forget the draw of a hotly contested presidential nominee race as well. Things don't look good for Haggerty and it's not because he's such a bad guy. It's simply a case of the stars aligning against him. And let's not forget, Margo may be just what the doctor ordered for Republicans in this town.
I guess you want to know what this whole Moody business is about by now. Here are the facts and figures. In 2006 there was a Democrat named Leon Schydlower who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, but did not make it onto the general election ballot. I have no idea why, but it's a moot point now.
In the 2006 primary, 914 more Democratic voters participated in the primary than Republican voters. A full percentage point more voters participated in the Democratic primary than in the Republican, which is big when you are talking such low turnout. Leon Schydlower received 4,456 votes in his unopposed race for a spot on the ballot and there were 2,559 "undervotes" or voters who chose not to vote for him. More Democrats voted in the 78th district than Republicans in 2006. Maybe the district is only Republican because Haggerty is such a moderate. It's feasable that the district is one big fence sitter. You can find the info here.
All that information is well and fine, but what does it mean to this race happening right now? Let me give you a little equation; angry electorate dying to vote for a Democrat + very few actual Republicans being on the ballot for any office + straight ticket voting = District 78 going to the Donkeys.
Joseph E. Moody will probably win his race against Louis Irwin for the Democratic spot on the ballot for the 78th on name identification alone. He is the son of the popular and illustrious Judge Moody. Joseph will benefit from his father's high rank in the local Democratic party and don't think for a second that he won't get some cash and volunteers to try and pull this off. While we watch Haggerty and Margo duke it out, Moody is quietly planning his coup.
You must also realize that the chances are El Paso is going to vote overwhelmingly Democratic in the race for the White House. Down-ballot candidates on the Republican side like Haggerty or Margo will succumb to the wave of Democratic hoopla. All it takes is some anti-Republican momentum, which we have, to spur on the straight ticket voting for the Democratic ticket. If that happens then Joseph Moody will be the longshot turned Texas House Member.
I wouldn't even be forwarding this scenario if I hadn't seen the numbers from the 2006 Democrat primary. Leon the mystery man actually received more votes in that primary than any candidate from either party, which includes Haggerty himself. The district is ripe to go Democratic.
Of course, I may be wrong, but I doubt it.