When Carl Robinson ended the last election with the most amount of votes I was shocked and compared the semi-victory to Ali knocking out Foreman in the famous Rumble in the Jungle. [link]
Robinson missing yesterday's debate, a joint venture between the Ray Pearson Forum and the Northeast YMCA, would be like Ali scheduling a fight with Smokin' Joe Frasier, promoting the fight, and then not showing up to get in the ring.
Ali never did that, and one wonders why Robinson has.
If I ever wrote a book on how to win an election, I would certainly include a chapter on what not to do. At this point, I'd probably name the chapter, “Don't Pull a Carl Robinson.” Robinson is good at losing elections and it looks like the unfamiliar position of being in front and having a decent cash flow, though nowhere near incumbent city Rep. Melina Castro's, is proving to be a challenge for the challenger and he's resorting to some old bad habits.
Several of us media/political insider types heard that Robinson was going to miss the debate as early as the night before. The reason given was that there was a family situation Robinson had to deal with, which turned out to be looking for his missing granddaughter.
David Crowder got in touch with Robinson and got the skinny.
Robinson's adult granddaughter left her home in Phoenix to be with a man here in El Paso, which is quite different than a little girl with a balloon tied around her wrist who wandered off from a family barbecue at Nation's Tobin Park.
Probably no less heart-wrenching for Robinson, though.
Robinson still should have shown up, even if it was to announce that he wasn't able to stay because his family came first. People understand that. But not showing up to the forum makes it look like he's ducking Castro.
Ducking Castro in a debate makes absolutely no sense at all. Robinson has the advantage because the bar is set pretty low for him to begin with. Not fair to Castro, but it is what it is. In order to win, all he pretty much has to do is show up, stay awake through the forum, and watch Castro field all the questions.
But not showing up makes it a story. What makes it an even bigger story, and infuriating for political observers, is when you don't show up to the debate because you are looking for your granddaughter, but you show up in the afternoon on talk radio.
City Rep. Eddie Holguin, a close political ally of Castro, told me how he felt about Robinson's absence quite clearly: “If he's going to be asking someone for their vote he should be willing to take the constituents' questions. If he doesn't then he has no business running or being a public servant.”
The audience deck was stacked against Robinson as the vast majority of debate-goers were Castro's people, complete with pretty pink Fantastic Four shirts. But what was even worse for Robinson was the fact that the media was there to document his absence.
From a strategic standpoint, it makes no sense to not show up. Robinson can not afford to rest on his laurels or miss chances to show up in public. More than 70 percent of voters did not support Castro, but more than 60 percent didn't support him either. Robinson is not automatically going to inherit the votes that were cast for the other candidates in the race. He has to do something to earn it or they just won't go to the polls at all.
If Robinson thinks he can win the race based on his own base of support and not winning the support of the base of the other candidates, that is boo coo dinki-dau .
Why?
Because Castro is going to try to do everything she can to earn those votes. She's playing with a sense of urgency that you usually only see during March Madness from a 16th seed basketball team from a school you've never heard of that is trying to make it into the Final Four.
Aside from a healthy dose of ganas, Castro has one other thing in great supply that Robinson doesn't.
Money.
And she's going to make it rain on the desks of local advertising outlets. Take a quick drive to the Northeast and you'll see giant-sized images of Castro plastered on billboards all over the place. She's buying airtime on talk radio and a source in her campaign tells me that she will be starting television commercials this weekend.
Castro's Q & A
True to recent form, Castro showed up to the debate with an entourage. In fact, of the 30 or so non-media people in attendance, it appeared that all but about 8 were Castro supporters. Having orchestrated little rent-a-crowds to give a candidate a boost of self-confidence myself, I recognized the tactic.
Castro, who is notoriously not available for media, should really reconsider not being available. I have to say, Castro did a great job of handling questions. She clearly has a confrontational relationship with the media but handled all the questions with tact and poise. I know she doesn't like being asked tough questions, but she does a surprisingly good job of handling herself in the hot seat.
Castro did two things well in the debate. She did a great job of defending her record, and she gave voters a reason to vote for her. The only problem was the fact that there was no one in attendance to convince, since they were all her supporters anyway.
Radio Free Robinson
So Robinson missed the debate, but showed up on talk radio on the Paul Strelzin Show on KHRO 1150am. In an ironic twist of fate, a well-placed source at KHRO tells me that Robinson and Castro were actually in the same building, at the same time. Castro was in the house to purchase some air time, but more on her upcoming media blitz later.
Word inside the studio is that there was an attempt to get the two to go on-air together but it didn't happen for some reason. Either Castro didn't want to go on with Strelzin, who she doesn't like very much, or Robinson didn't want to tangle with Castro after missing a televised debate with her earlier in the day.
Holguin called in to Strelzin's show to clear up some “misinformation” about Castro. Holguin told me that he called in because there was discussion about the new bus terminal and there was no mention of Castro's involvement. Holguin wanted to set the record straight and ensure that listeners were aware the Castro was the key figure in the new bus terminal in the Northeast. The chronology of events, however, suggests something else. [link]
Strelz took the opportunity of Holguin's call to ask Castro to come on his show. Holguin replied, “Sure, anytime.”
Strelzin quickly added, “I've called her several times to invite her on my show, she doesn't return my calls.”
Will She or Won't She?
Also in attendance at the debate was NPT media partner ABC-7. Reporter Darren Hunt asked Castro if she'd appear with Robinson Sunday night on ABC 7 Xtra, since Robinson had already confirmed. Castro, who was sort of on the spot, agreed if Hunt, who is host of the show, would be fair to her.
A little later Hunt approached Castro to give her details of when to show up for the show. Castro started to backtrack and told Hunt to let her sleep on it. Hunt reminded her that she'd already publicly committed to being on the show and that he had a deadline to meet.
Hunt also explained that if she didn't show up, that the show would just be Hunt and Robinson. Castro expressed surprise and asked Hunt, “You'd still have the show if I wasn't there?”
Well why not? She just finished a debate all by herself because Robinson no-showed.
She continued by telling Hunt he had to prove himself to her before she'd go on. She said that she didn't understand why the media only cared about the $30k she used to pay off a supposed debt to the city and not about the museums. Your guess is as good as mine as to why she mentioned museums.
Since Castro was getting a little testy, I pulled out my video camera and started rolling. Castro noticed and decided to have a little fun with me.
She waived at me and said “Hi Jaime, I love you.”
I knew it.
All the times that she doesn't return my calls and her dirty looks at me say she wants to cook me in my own fat, but her heart just cannot deny the truth.
Since she walked away immediately after declaring her feelings for me, it wasn't clear whether or not she's actually going to be on this ABC 7 Xtra this Sunday night.
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Abeytia writes theLionstar blog and is a political animal who spends way too much time traveling the wilds of El Paso politics. Reach him at lionstar@thelionstarblog.com.
