The Lion's Den: In the NE, will it be 'All About the Benjamins'?

Puff Daddy, now P-Diddy, had it right back in the day. It really is "All About the Benjamins."

The election for District 4 is already over with. It basically ended on Tuesday with the end of early voting. We just don't know who the victor is yet. But one way or another, it is over with. Whoever wins early voting, usually wins the election. Sure you might pick up some ground here and there, but the Fat Lady started belting out her song on Tuesday.

The more I pay attention to this race, the more I wonder about the collective wisdom of voters. All you have to do is listen to talk radio or people that keep up with politics and you will see how easy it is to create and sell a message. That's why it is so important to make sure you do that early and keep up a constant barrage.

It doesn't have to be true, it just has to be repeated.

If you don't believe me, conduct your own little experiment. Listen to talk radio and talk to people who live in the Northeast and listen to how many times you hear the campaign talking points repeated. Count how many times you hear "yes man" and "rubber stamp" about Carl Robinson.

Count how many times you hear about city Rep. Melina Castro's unexplained $30k payment to the city, her residency, how she's an "independent voice" and how she votes no.

The constant drum beat of these issues gets fed repeatedly to voters and they start to believe it.

But the real telling point in this race is the money. Who has it, and who doesn't. At the time of the last report, nearly $30,000 had been raised and spent by Castro for her reelection campaign. That's not counting the $30k everyone, including me, keeps asking about. I don't care who you are, that is a lot of money and I am sure that that number will continue to rise over the last eight days of the election cycle.

The reason money is so important is because of the old saying our mothers used to tell us, "Dime con quien andas, y te dire quien eres -- Tell me who you hang with and I'll tell you who you are." Campaign reports are very telling about a candidate. You can see who's doing a lot of fundraising, who isn't, who's contributing, who isn't, and who's paying out of their own pocket.

That much money in a race tells me one thing for sure. There is a certain group of people who have a big interest in making sure that Castro is re-elected.

The thing about money is that it was in short supply in other races this year, but not in Castro's case surprisingly. The other thing is that no matter what, you don't get somethin' for nothin' and it's really hard to say that you are an "independent voice" when you are clearly not independent in paying the campaign bills.

Then there's Carl Robinson. The knock on Robinson has always been that he's a lazy campaigner. In fact, the Castro camp is banking on Robinson staying true to form, which may be part of the reason so much money has been spent in this race. The thing about Robinson is that he's not the type to go and ask for money, which is something you can't be shy about doing if you want to win, especially if the money isn't coming in on its own.

Robinson says he's not taking a recent poll that has him in the lead by 20 percent for granted. Robinson says it's full speed ahead until election day, but there is one problem. He doesn't have any money. It's always trouble when you see expenditures for the report is more than contributions.

Money isn't everything, but it sure in hell helps out a lot. Robinson has been on the radio, goes to community meetings, etc, but what he needs the most he hasn't done. He needs to be able to reach out to the voters who voted for the other candidates and not Castro. Given the short time frame between the last election and the run-off, it's hard to make a home visit to the voters, especially because Robinson has a smaller "volunteer" base than Castro.

So the way to reach those voters is through a mailer. Robinson has only sent one mailer prior to the end of early voting. The mailer was a picture of the other candidates along with some quotes from the former challengers. But what it didn't do was more important. It didn't lay out WHY to support Robinson. Once again, when it comes to specificity, Robinson missed the mark. The fact that it is Robinson's ONLY mailer due to short funds underscores this point even further.

Robinson wants to be his own man, but he still should have put himself on a level playing field with his opponent. He should have went out to ask for money rather than passively waiting for people to come through with financial commitments.

If Robinson should lose, the fact that he didn't do enough to reach out to the supporters of the other challengers will be the reason. That's why "It's all about the Benjamins."

The Bottom Line

Here's the bottom line about money and the District 4 race. Castro is clearly not popular in her own district, as indicated by the fact that more than 70 percent of the voters who cast a ballot in the general election voted someone else. A recent poll puts her 20 percentage points behind Robinson.

That might sound like dire straits, and clearly the-odds-are-against-me card is being played by the Castro camp, but Castro shouldn't be counted out yet. She has the great equalizer...money, and lots of it.

Money can fix a lot of things. Her name and face are being plastered everywhere. She knows that looks are an asset for her, otherwise her face wouldn't appear as prominently on her billboards as it does. This is all made possible by money.

It's also fair to say that money isn't the only thing Castro is doing right. Her message has been effective -- not accurate -- but effective nonetheless. She's great at staying on message, and is very disciplined. She even shows that discipline within the campaign during a recent stop on the Barbara Perez Show on KHRO 1150am. Talk shows have regular callers and when she was on there were some new voices who were asking questions like 'who are you endorsed by,' 'what is your voting record,' and other set-up questions.

And Castro can afford to get her message out to voters through phone banking, block walking, and mailers, all of which take money. Robinson can't.

The bottom line is all about the bottom line. Castro's best hope to win is to "buy" the election by having a constant barrage of commercials, ads, and billboards. Size matters and she has a bigger bottom line than Robinson.

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