For the second time in a month, Carl Robinson shocked many political observers. This time it wasn't by the fact that he won, but rather by the margin of victory. With a turnout that was higher than the general election, Robinson defeated his opponent, incumbent city Rep. Melina Castro, by more than a two to one margin.

Results from early voting released as the polls closed showed Robinson had a huge lead, capturing more than 67 percent of the vote. With a margin that wide, it is no wonder than Robinson had declared victory before 8 p.m., less than an hour after the close of polls.

There are many reasons why Robinson's victory is so interesting: the margin of victory; the mandate for the progressives; the probable end of Castro's political career; a relatively clean election; and the polarization of City Council. Oh yeah, and then there's the fact that Robinson had lost twice before, wasn't taken seriously, never raised the money he could have, never did the grassroots effort he should have, and didn't capitalize on his opponent's weaknesses.

There were so many opportunities to take on his opponent and Robinson always passed on them. Some would say it was a mistake to do that, but in the end Robinson was right. The race was one of the cleanest in recent memory. No real personal beef between the candidates and none of the real animosity between the camps that sometimes develops.

Yet Robinson was a man on a mission on election day, covering all the polls, checking on his volunteers, and killing the battery on his cell phone. Because he was out and about making his campaign run, he was late to his own shin-dig. He hadn't been made aware of the results of early voting yet, so I told him the early numbers.

He stared at me for a moment or two, trying to grasp the enormity of his lead and probably trying to see if I was pulling his leg. Then he asked me for the numbers again and his eyes looked like they started to water a bit. He mumbled something about Jesus that I didn't catch and then a huge smile quickly engulfed his face.

First Interview with city. Rep-elect Carl Robinson


How Did it Happen?

In short, Robinson won despite doing everything wrong according to so-called conventional wisdom. He was out-spent big time, he was out-worked big time. He had a lead going in to the run-off, but not really that large of a lead.

Castro did everything right by the book. She developed a strong message, stayed on message, raised big money, spent big money, carpet-bombed voters with mailers, had ads all over the place, and worked the grassroots operations pretty hard.

All of that should have spelled disaster for Robinson, but some how, some way, the unassuming Robinson still won with a big margin.

I guess the best way to answer the question is to say that nice guys don't always finish last. Robinson had many supporters there that had originally backed another candidate and they all told me that there were two reasons they backed Robinson. First, they weren't happy with Castro and second, Robinson is just a nice guy and they like that.

Quits for Castro?

Rule number one in politics, be gracious in victory and defeat. I kept waiting all night for a call to come to Robinson from Representative Castro to either concede the loss or congratulate the victor.

It never came.

But that may have been a difficult call to make considering the margin of victory. Despite having nearly every tactical advantage in the race, Castro still lost overwhelmingly. I don't care who you are, losing that bad has to hurt.

The vote was a referendum on Castro's term and she came out an the short end; the really short end. The message from voters was loud and clear and it was a message that would be difficult for anyone who tried their best to serve their constituency.

With Castro's ties to both Luther Jones and Gilbert Sanchez, both of whom were indicted the day before the election, Castro's political future is in serious doubt. Her base is now much smaller than it was previously and there are lingering questions about her lawsuit with the city. Add to that the fact that she will forever be tied to people indicated in the public corruption scandal and it spells almost certain doom for any thoughts of holding another office.

The larger question is what about the investment so many donors made to her candidacy? Where do they stand?

Jaime O. Perez is o-for

Castro represented the last opportunity for campaign vindication in the city of El Paso, but true to form all the candidates connected to, or endorsed by, Jaime O. Perez were defeated. Actually, that is putting in mildly, more accurately they were blown-out at every turn.

It had to be difficult for Rep. Castro to hear Jaime O. Perez distance himself from her earlier in the week on the Paul Strelzin Show. Perhaps Perez saw the writing on the wall and wanted to save face, but at any rate, Perez's assistance and/or endorsement of candidates spelled disaster for the candidate.

Assistance or endorsement from Perez was sort of like the way the Swine Flu Panic of 2009 was perceived, it was fatal if you caught it.

Victory Celebration

The celebration was a packed house at the Chinese Cafe on Dyer and there was a sense of happy disbelief in the margin of victory. It was a diverse mix of supporters, Asian, African-American, Latino, and Anglo.

Once everything was official, the very people Castro attempted to tie to Robinson showed up, including city Reps Ann Lily and Susie Byrd, and Mayor John Cook.

Implications

To a degree, this is a mandate for the so-called “progressives.” They all won and won big. The lone conservative lost and lost big. There is now a much stronger majority for the progressives on council and with that increased power, you may end up seeing some rifts within the voting bloc as they jockey for power when it comes to their individual priorities.

City Rep. Eddie Holguin, an ardent Castro supporter, will have one less ally and will still lose all the votes, but he is still solid in his district. It remains to be seen if he will stick to his guns or try to build some bridges with his opponents on council.

So I guess I'll end my analysis on this run-off election the way I started it a month ago.

Robinson bumaye!

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Abeytia writes the Lionstar blog and is a political animal who spends way too much time traveling the wilds of El Paso politics. Reach him at lionstar@thelionstarblog.com.